Moneyline vs spread vs total: which bet to make
By the Match Tail team ·
Moneylines, point spreads and totals are the three main bets on almost every US game. They answer different questions about the same game, and they pay in different ways. This guide walks through one example game for each bet, shows how the payouts work, and explains when we reach for each one.
What is the difference between a moneyline, a spread and a total?
A moneyline is a bet on which team wins the game. A point spread is a bet on the margin: the favorite must win by more than the spread, and the underdog must lose by less or win. A total, or over/under, is a bet on the combined score of both teams, regardless of who wins.
| Bet | You pick | You win when |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | A team | That team wins the game |
| Spread | A team and a handicap | That team wins after the handicap |
| Total | Over or under a number | The combined score lands on your side |
All three are priced in American odds. If the plus and minus numbers are new to you, start with our guide on how to read American betting odds.
How does a moneyline bet work?
A moneyline bet pays if your team wins, with no points handicap. Usually the favorite carries a minus price and pays less than you risk, while the underdog carries a plus price and pays more. In a close game, both sides can carry minus prices. The price, not a handicap, balances the two teams.
Team A implied chance: 170 ÷ (170 + 100) = 62.96%
Team B implied chance: 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40.00%
$50 on Team A: 50 × (100 ÷ 170) = $29.41 profit
$50 on Team B: 50 × (150 ÷ 100) = $75.00 profit
Team A only has to win, by any score. That simplicity is the appeal. The catch is the price on big favorites. At -400 you risk $400 to win $100, and the bet needs to win 400 ÷ (400 + 100) × 100 = 80% of the time just to break even.
How does a point spread work?
A point spread gives the underdog a head start of a set number of points. You add the spread to your team’s final score, then see who wins. If Team A is -3.5, Team A must win by four or more. If you take Team B at +3.5, Team B can lose by three and your bet still wins.
| Final score (A to B) | Margin | A -3.5 | B +3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 to 20 | A by 4 | Wins | Loses |
| 23 to 20 | A by 3 | Loses | Wins |
| 20 to 24 | B by 4 | Loses | Wins |
The half point exists to stop ties. When a spread is a whole number, such as -3, and the favorite wins by exactly three, the bet is a push and the sportsbook returns your stake.
Spreads on both sides are often priced at -110. That price needs a 52.38% win rate to break even, since 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38%. In baseball and hockey the spread is usually fixed at 1.5 runs or goals, called the run line and the puck line, and the price moves instead of the number.
How does an over/under total work?
A total is a bet on the combined points scored by both teams. The sportsbook sets a number, such as 47.5. You bet the over if you expect more points, or the under if you expect fewer. Who wins the game does not matter. A whole-number total that lands exactly is a push.
Final 27 to 21: 27 + 21 = 48, over wins
Final 24 to 20: 24 + 20 = 44, under wins
On a total of 47, a final of 27 to 20 adds to 47: push, stake returned
$22 on the over at -110: 22 × (100 ÷ 110) = $20 profit
Totals suit games where you have a view on pace or scoring, such as weather, injuries to key scorers or two defenses that rarely give up big plays, but no strong view on who wins.
Which bet should you make, and when?
Make the bet with the highest expected value per dollar, using your own win chance: EV per dollar = probability × decimal odds − 1. Skip any bet whose estimated EV is zero or negative. Moneylines often suit underdogs you think can win outright, spreads suit expensive favorites, and totals suit games where you have a scoring view.
Moneyline break-even: 400 ÷ (400 + 100) = 80.00%
Spread break-even: 110 ÷ (110 + 100) = 52.38%
$100 on the moneyline: 100 × (100 ÷ 400) = $25.00 profit
$100 on the spread: 100 × (100 ÷ 110) = $90.91 profit
Decimal odds: moneyline 1 + (100 ÷ 400) = 1.25, spread 1 + (100 ÷ 110) = 1.909091
EV per dollar = probability × decimal odds − 1
Favorite wins 85%: moneyline EV = 0.85 × 1.25 − 1 = +0.0625, so +$6.25 per $100
Favorite covers 50%: spread EV = 0.50 × 1.909091 − 1 = −0.0455, so −$4.55 per $100
Favorite covers 56% instead: spread EV = 0.56 × 1.909091 − 1 = +0.0691, so +$6.91 per $100
Neither number on its own tells you which bet is better. The moneyline wins more often, because the favorite only has to win. The spread pays more, but the favorite has to win by eight or more. Compare EV per dollar, not the gap above break-even. At 85% the moneyline sits 85 − 80 = 5 points above its break-even and makes +$6.25 per $100. At 56% the spread sits only 56 − 52.38 = 3.62 points above its break-even, yet it makes more, +$6.91 per $100, because each win pays more. At a 50% cover chance the spread has negative EV, so skip it. If neither bet has positive EV, skip the game.
- You think the underdog wins outright: the plus moneyline pays the most.
- You like the favorite but not at a steep price: look at the spread.
- You expect a high or low scoring game but cannot call the winner: the total.
- You have no view: skip the game. Passing costs nothing.
Comparing EV per dollar is the whole idea behind expected value.
Can you combine a moneyline, a spread and a total in one bet?
Yes. Combining bets into one ticket is called a parlay, and every leg must win for it to pay. A push or void leg is settled by the sportsbook’s rules; usually that leg drops out and the ticket is repriced. If the legs are independent, the vig on each leg multiplies, so the margin grows with every leg.
Legs that are linked, such as a team’s moneyline and its spread in the same game, are not independent, and sportsbooks often restrict or reprice them. We treat parlays as a small side bet, not a core strategy. Our guide to parlay odds math shows how fast the margin grows. For sizing any of these bets, see bankroll management and betting units. If you would rather copy a plan than build one, Match Tail lets you copy the bets we place and tells you when to open or close each one.
What else should you know?
What does a push mean in sports betting?
A push is a tie against the line, such as a favorite at -3 winning by exactly three. The sportsbook returns your stake, so you neither win nor lose.
What does -3.5 mean in betting?
-3.5 means the team must win by four points or more for a spread bet on it to win. The half point means the bet cannot push.
Is the moneyline or the spread better for an underdog?
If you think a plus-priced underdog wins outright, the moneyline usually pays more. If you think it keeps the game close but still loses, only the spread wins.
Only bet money you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, call or text the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).